Case study · Crypto · Hyperliquid · BTC + ETH perpetuals

Thirty minutes before the tariff hit, somebody was already short. A billion dollars' worth.

The receipts were on-chain the whole time.

October 9–10, 2025 · All timestamps ET unless noted
OCT 9 · 12:39 PM
A wallet — later tagged by Arkham Intelligence as "Trump insider" — transfers $80 million USDC to a Hyperliquid trading account. Hyperliquid is a fully on-chain perpetuals exchange. Every deposit, every position, every fill is public the moment it happens. Source: Arkham via Investing.com
OCT 9 · afternoon
The account opens a Bitcoin short. Position expands to 3,600 BTC — roughly $420 million notional. BTC is trading near an all-time high of $122,000, having set a fresh peak of $126,000 three days earlier. Source: Arkham via Investing.com
OCT 10 · early AM
Another $30 million USDC hits a second Hyperliquid address linked to the same room. This one opens an Ethereum short — 12x leverage on ~76,000 ETH. Source: Lookonchain via TradingView
OCT 10 · 11:30 AM
Position is now 6,200 BTC ($735M) plus 91,000 ETH ($380M). Combined notional: $1.115 billion short. Unrealized profit already above $27 million. No public catalyst yet. BTC is still trading near $122K. Source: Lookonchain via Investing.com · 15:30 UTC
OCT 10 · 4:20 PM
(±30 min)
Thirty minutes before Trump's Truth Social post, the account adds to its shorts. One minute before the post lands, the record shows another +200 BTC added to the position. Source: Coffeezilla (@coffeebreak_YT) on X
OCT 10 · 4:50 PM
Trump posts on Truth Social.

It has just been learned that China has taken an extraordinarily aggressive position on Trade in sending an extremely hostile letter to the World, stating that they were going to, effective November 1st, 2025, impose large scale Export Controls on virtually every product they make, and some not even made by them.

This affects ALL Countries, without exception, and was obviously a plan devised by them years ago. It is absolutely unheard of in International Trade, and a moral disgrace in dealing with other Nations.

Based on the fact that China has taken this unprecedented position, and speaking only for the U.S.A., and not other Nations who were similarly threatened, starting November 1st, 2025 (or sooner, depending on any further actions or changes taken by China), the United States of America will impose a Tariff of 100% on China, over and above any Tariff that they are currently paying.

Also on November 1st, we will impose Export Controls on any and all critical software.

DONALD J. TRUMP
PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

— Donald J. Trump · Truth Social · Oct 10, 2025 · 4:50 PM EDT · Archive
OCT 10 · 5:15 PM
Twenty-five minutes after the post, $3.21 billion in leveraged positions are liquidated in 60 seconds. BTC breaks $110,000. ETH breaks $4,000. Source: CoinGecko · 21:15 UTC
OCT 10 · 5:50 PM
Within an hour of the post, the account closes 90% of its BTC shorts and all of its ETH shorts. Over $250 million USDC wired back to the funding wallet. Source: Investing.com
OCT 10 · overnight
BTC bottoms at $104,782.88 — down more than 14% from Friday's high of $122,574.46. ETH bottoms at $3,436, down 20% from earlier that day. Source: CoinShares · CoinDesk
OCT 11 · closing tally
$19.16 billion in leveraged positions liquidated across 1.6 million traders. Largest single-day wipeout in the history of crypto derivatives. The account's realized profit from the previous 24 hours: community estimates put it at ~$192 million. Source: CoinMarketCap liquidations dashboard · Hypurrscan via Cryptonews.au

What the tape showed.

Every one of these positions was public. Hyperliquid is a fully on-chain exchange — deposits, opens, closes, wallet balances, liquidation prices, all of it visible to anyone with the address and a block explorer. The wallet at the center of this trade, 0xb317…, was tagged by Arkham Intelligence as "Trump insider" after the fact.

The pseudonymous on-chain researcher Eyeonchains publicly linked the wallet to Garrett Jin, a former exchange executive. Jin acknowledged a connection but said the capital was client funds and denied any relationship with the Trump family. Binance founder Changpeng "CZ" Zhao reshared the claim with the note: "Not sure of validity. Hope someone can cross check." No enforcement action has been publicly confirmed.

The Piggyback thesis is simpler than the identity question. The Daily would have caught the $1.1 billion position building on Friday morning. Pro would have pinged a subscriber's phone the moment the position crossed a nine-figure threshold — hours before Trump posted.

The trades were public. Every one of them.

That's what I saw. Do what you want.

— Francesca

Sources

The 0xb317 wallet was tagged by Arkham Intelligence as "Trump insider." No enforcement action or formal investigation finding has been publicly confirmed as of the time of this writing. Garrett Jin, publicly linked to the wallet by pseudonymous on-chain researcher Eyeonchains, has denied any connection to the Trump family and stated the capital was client funds. Realized-profit figures of ~$192 million are community estimates derived from on-chain deposit and withdrawal flows; different outlets have reported a range of $150 million to $200 million. Nothing on this page is financial advice, an accusation of any specific individual, or a claim of any regulatory finding. Trading involves risk of loss.

Different edges. Different appetites.

$5 I show you mine. $19 you show me yours.

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